French music publishers estimate the Covid crisis will result in cumulative losses of €173m over three years

 

By Emmanuel Legrand

The cumulative loss of income for French publishers over the years 2020-2022 is estimated at €173m, compared to 2019's figures, which represents 42% of the 2019 value of the publishing market,  according to figures from France's two main music publishers' association: Chambre syndicale de l’édition musicale (CSDEM), and the organisation representing publishers of classical music, Chambre syndicale des Éditeurs de Musique de France (CEMF).

  Overall, the market will suffer a loss of revenues of €248m compared to what the market would have been without the health crisis, assuming that there would have been a yearly growth rate of 3%, according to the yearly 'Barometre de l'edition musicale' (Focus on music publishing), compiled and published jointly by CSDEM and CEMF.

  The yearly Focus covers the year 2019, but also contains an estimate of market figures for the years 2020, 2021 and 2022, in order to take into account the context of the health and social Covid-related crisis.

Recovery expected in 2022

  For 2020, the report suggests that revenues will be down 10% on 2019 figures to €367m, due to a drop in distributions from rights society SACEM, synch and foreign rights. For 2021, revenues are estimated to be around €329m, 10% down compared to 2020. By 2022, the market should recover with estimated revenues up 6% to €349m, due to an increase in rights directly collected, and despite than estimated 2% drop in SACEM distributions.

  "The impact of the health crisis will weigh heavily on the publishing market over the next three years," reads the report. For CSDEM and CEMF, It is only from 2022 that the trend will reverse and the market will recover, but will have yet recover to its pre-crisis level.

  CSDEM said that the July 2021 distribution from SACEM highlighted the impact of the pandemic with a 14.37% drop in distributable income, compared to the July 2020 distribution. Performance rights from the live sector, cinema and businesses using music experienced the biggest drops, while digital rights rose sharply. Excluding online rights (downloads, audio and video streaming), the drop in all other streams of revenues was 24.6%.

A time-delayed tsunami

  CSDEM noted that "for a very large proportion of publishers, the average drop is over 50%," reflecting the impact of the second lockdown. The trade organisation compared the situation to a "time-delayed tsunami" and that the road to recovery will be "long and difficult" for music publishers, authors and composers.

  In 2019, the music publishing market in France was worth €406.0 million in 2019, a 3% increase compared to 2018 (€393m), according to the 'Barometre de l'edition musicale'.

  For 2019, the key sources of revenues were distributions from SACEM (mechanical and performance rights, as well as foreign rights not collected via sub-publishers) at €250m, up 1% year-on-year, synch at €67m (down 1%), foreign rights at €52m (up 12%), classical music at €20m (up 2%), and other revenues at €17m (up 37%).